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Yesterday I read a post in the digest suggesting that this was the worst
recession in 20 years. While that may be the personal experience of the
author, it is not supported by the economic data available. (Granted,
economics is a social science rather than a hard science and therefore the
data is subject to all kinds of interpretation/misinterpretation, so YMMV.)
At any rate, with all the gloom & doom we've read on the list, which is the
unfortunate reality for many writers today, I thought I'd share a ray of
hope with the group:
I am working on my MBA at the University of St. Thomas in St.
Paul/Minneapolis, MN. This semester one of my courses is Applied Managerial
Economics and the professor is a regional economist for the Federal Reserve
Bank, 9th district (Minneapolis). Last night the topic was macroeconomics
and the Fed. My prof's job is to interview people in industry, higher
education, government, mining & agriculture, etc. to formulate a regional
economic outlook prior to the economic indicators becoming available
(economic indicators, even the "fast" ones, are typically weeks-months
behind what's actually happening because they measure past performance:
housing starts, consumer price index, manufacturing orders, unemployment
rates, etc.)
His prognosis for at least this region is that we've hit the bottom of the
recession and are on the upswing. He bases this on the information he
receives about businesses expanding in both plant & human capital, growth
plans, production, etc. So it may be more than just wishful thinking on the
part of posters who posted positive remarks yesterday.
In the past I've been unemployed for months at a time & I know it's easy to
see the negative...so I hope this bit of news cheers some of you.
Ruth
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