Re: The software factory (was "Don't believe the hype?")

[Chris Despopoulos <cud -at- telecable -dot- es>]

Sorry, but I'm not going to quote everything....  Tupperware vs thrown 
pottery, MS being brave enough to make a commodity out of software, the 
dominance of the industrial model...

TUPPERWARE:
There is still room in the market for artistic and atrisanial 
tableware.  Vertical software may be analogous.  I'll note that if you 
look in any computer magazine these days, you won't see much innovation 
in software.  It's all yet another GHz in the chip, hand-held devices, 
or games.  I think that says more about software-as-commodity than 
anything else.  The technology is maturing, and as with all things 
evolutionary, the initial explosion has given way to a sifting out of 
the most general solutions.  The unique solutions tend to die off.  But 
I think vertical software will continue for some time to come.  That's 
where the current innovations is, as far as I can see.   And XML + real 
B2B is waiting in the wings.  Oh, and you wouldn't catch me using 
Tupperware.  I hate the stuff.  It's not biodegradable.

REDMOND:
Need I repeat that Windows is *not* the best operating system?  It won, 
but not on the merits of its quality, capacity, support, robustness, 
ease-of-use, innovation...  It is indeed a weed. 

INDUSTRIAL MODEL:
We're kidding ourselves if we ever think (or thought) we're not 
conforming to an industrial model.  There are significant differences 
between this one and earlier ones, but the model is industrial 
nonetheless.  A significant difference is the material that must be 
moved to support the industry.  For the industrial revolution we needed 
trains to move coal and raw materials.  For this industry, the 
*material* to move around was people.  The industry capitalized 
enormously on that in two ways...  First, it put the responsibility to 
move the people onto the people themselves - gotta have a car.  Second, 
it offset the infrastructure onto the local gvmts - roads.  Remember the 
traffic jams in Silly Valley just a few years ago?   I'd wager that 
factor alone contributed most significantly to the high earnings 
expections put on software.

The emerging change is centered on the fact that you don't even need to 
move people.   I'm surprised it took this long to occur to management 
that you can get the work done anywhere.  If they had latched onto the 
idea sooner, there would be more Americans doing the work from home (for 
less), and fewer jobs would be going offshore.  Again, it's not the best 
that always wins - there are too many other factors.  Timing is a big 
one in this case.  It remains to be seen how the industry shakes out.  
I'm not convinced that it's a good model to simply hand your development 
over to a turn-key office somewhere else.  In the long run, you may as 
well hand your company over - what's to stop them from taking over sales 
and marketing?  The sales and marketing backgrounds of most CEOs, and 
the desire to protect that sector of the industry?   What's to stop 
companies from offshoring everything except the liquid capital, if not 
the protectionist instincts that will ultimately kick in when people 
high enough on the ladder see their positions going away?  

So why not protect jobs now?  I'm not sure...  I think it's a good thing 
to even out the playing field, but I don't think it's good to exclude 
Americans who would work from home - just because they don't belong to a 
turn-key shop in another country.  All things considered, I bet the 
cost/benefit could be rather similar.  But management doesn't think that 
way.  They chase fashion and public opinion just as much as Tom Cruise 
or Martha Stewart do.  Yet again - the best does not always win.  
(Otherwise, we'd be driving steam-powered cars, and Tom Cruise would 
never have worked for Kubric.)



^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

ROBOHELP IS THE INDUSTRY STANDARD IN HELP AUTHORING 
New RoboHelp X5 includes all new features such as, 
content management, multi-author support, distributed
workforce support, XML and PDF support, and much more!

Purchase new Macromedia RoboHelp X5 by March 31st and receive a 
$100 mail-in rebate. http://www.ehelp.com/techwr-l

---
You are currently subscribed to techwr-l as:
archiver -at- techwr-l -dot- com
To unsubscribe send a blank email to leave-techwr-l-obscured -at- lists -dot- raycomm -dot- com
Send administrative questions to ejray -at- raycomm -dot- com -dot-  Visit
http://www.raycomm.com/techwhirl/ for more resources and info.