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Subject:Re: Rules of thumb in estimating (long) From:"J. Shaw" <Jack -dot- Shaw -at- SAGUS -dot- COM> Date:Wed, 9 Jul 1997 09:54:10 -0700
Matt,
Unfortunately, unlike painting the house, this craft is like
changing a tire on a moving car. When you painted the house,
most likely you had already gathered all your stuff together
before starting. In this business, you're starting the job and
they're still making the paint. You don't know when you'll get
the first gallon, and you have no assurance that it'll cover in
one coat. And most likely, halfway through, the manufacturer's
going to change the color and come up with a noticeably different
shade of the stuff--and it all only comes in pints!
But of course, the wedding's on Saturday and the new shade of
two-coat stuff arrives on Friday afternoon and the homeowner
wants you outta there for the wedding and IT DAMNED WELL BETTER
MATCH WHAT YOU PAINTED ALREADY!!!
My tip would be, plan your writing job from the end, backwards.
Know what media the end result will be, how long it takes to
produce in that media, and estimate your efforts according to the
job the way you see it now, using all the best info. and input
available at this time. Maybe something like Timeline or some other
critical path planning tool would be useful for setting milestones.
Then add 50% fudge factor. The end result will be four years after
your end product is needed, but the rest is negotiation. Some of the
stuff you use as input is firm (date needed--well, it is right now...),
production time (printing, burning CD-ROMs or whatever) and other
stuff is fluid (when will the dev's. give you their input, who's
responsible in each area of the dev. or design effort--nail down
a "technical owner" contact in these areas, preferably a project
leader or personager type) so you can only guess. If another project
is known, use it as a guide.
And when someone weasels out by saying, "Heck, how should I know
when I'll have something???", say, "O.K., can you give me a date
when you'll know?" And s/he says, "Heck no, not now!!", you say,
"Well then, give me a date when you can give me a date..."-- this
sounds absurd, but it is a commitment. Hold them to it.
If your sources slip a day and it affects the so-called critical
path, you slip a day. Make that a condition in the up-front negotiation.
If this sounds like CYA, so be it. And when there appears to be
trouble, the earlier you make it known the better it is for you and
all concerned. No one likes surprises in this racket, but the sooner
they occur the better you come off. Only fools expect a plan never
to change, so change it when needed, but only with good cause.
Like the houses you painted, you'll get better as you go along, just
as you surmise.
Go for it!
Cheers,
Jack Shaw
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